Efek Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Angka Harapan Hidup
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37058/wlfr.v7i1.307Keywords:
Life Expectancy, Economic Growth, Mortality, Basic Infrastructure, FMOLS and DOLSAbstract
This study aims to analyze the long-term relationship between economic growth, mortality, and basic infrastructure on life expectancy in developing countries using panel data. The research objects include five countries in the Asian region, namely Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, using annual secondary data sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) with analysis years 2000–2023. The methods used are Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) to address endogeneity, serial correlation, and cross-country heterogeneity. The results show that economic growth has a positive effect on life expectancy, while mortality has a strong and consistent negative impact across all model specifications. In contrast, the effect of basic infrastructure as measured by access to drinking water and basic sanitation shows instability in both sign and significance, so its role is conditional and highly dependent on the structural context. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicates a one-way causality from economic growth to life expectancy, as well as a two-way causal relationship between economic growth, mortality, and basic infrastructure. Overall, these findings confirm that mortality reduction is the most consistent determinant of increasing life expectancy, while economic growth plays a structural supporting role in the long run.
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan jangka panjang antara pertumbuhan ekonomi, mortalitas, dan infrastruktur dasar terhadap angka harapan hidup di negara berkembang dengan menggunakan data panel. Objek penelitian meliputi lima negara di kawasan Asia, yaitu Indonesia, Thailand, Filipina, Sri Lanka, dan Pakistan, dengan menggunakan data sekunder tahunan yang bersumber dari World Development Indicators (WDI) dengan tahun analisis 2000–2023. Metode yang digunakan adalah Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) dan Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) untuk mengatasi endogenitas, korelasi serial, serta heterogenitas lintas negara. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif terhadap angka harapan hidup, sedangkan mortalitas memiliki dampak negatif yang kuat dan konsisten di seluruh spesifikasi model. Sebaliknya, pengaruh infrastruktur dasar yang diukur melalui akses air minum dan sanitasi dasar menunjukkan ketidakstabilan baik dari sisi tanda maupun signifikansi sehingga perannya bersifat kondisional dan sangat bergantung pada konteks struktural. Selanjutnya, uji kausalitas panel Dumitrescu-Hurlin menunjukkan adanya kausalitas satu arah dari pertumbuhan ekonomi menuju angka harapan hidup, serta hubungan kausal dua arah antara pertumbuhan ekonomi, mortalitas, dan infrastruktur dasar. Secara keseluruhan, temuan ini menegaskan bahwa penurunan mortalitas merupakan determinan paling konsisten dalam meningkatkan angka harapan hidup, sedangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi berperan sebagai faktor pendukung struktural dalam jangka panjang.
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